Hello Everyone!
For decades we've all heard many, many things about how water shortages may change our lives. From the annals of "Whole Earth" to science fiction from conversations in some fairly conservative workplaces and student hangouts rumors are rife.
And these common ideas range from things that in fact have strong historical precedents ranging from ancient times to living memory to ideas to extremely improbable scenarios. And some of the extreme improbabilities include things such as Fremen Stillsuits as portrayed in Frank Herbert's Dune, laws forbidding people from bathing or showering more than once a week without a doctor's permission, or an earth completely without trees as was portrayed in "Soylent Green" and "Silent Running".
And having talked to people about water for a long time, I've realized that most people have extremely confused if not scizophrenic ideas about what is realistically likely to result from water shortages. Just like some people will say they expect a nuclear war within ten years with a shrug and complain bitterly (at the age of 19) that social security won't be ready when they are old, or suggest that horses and buggies are a more likely solution to global warming, while driving an SUV, inconsistencies about water are often equally confused.
But while global warming and nuclear weapons are fairly new in the human experience, issues involving water are age old. And we have many annals of history and over a century of engineering to call upon. And here I will list some scenarios that I consider either nearly certain, probable or at least a distinct possibility.
Nearly Certain:
1. Political conflict over water: Conflicts between privatization of water resources versus keeping it largely a public resource. Also there is likely to be some level of conflict between encourage conservation (ei through price) versus considering adequate water a human right.
2. Certain things will become scarcer and thus more expensive: The most obvious item on this list would be meat especially beef and to a lesser extent pork. Constraints on greenhouse gases could drive up the prices of meat even further. Other food items this could extend to could include fish, dairy, eggs, sugar, and beer. Paper, metal, and most textiles are also likely to be affected. Which may mean that people-even middle class people in developed countries-may end up owning fewer clothes and that disposable paper and cotton products might become less prevalent for reasons other than environmental consciousness. It's not impossible that even medical establishments and will end up using a lot more reusable/sterlizable/autoclavable items and a lot fewer disposable ones. (Same with trends may occur in laboratories.)
3. Water issues will become a major deciding factor in what biofuels and renewable energy sources the world can pursue and how much can be produced.-
In this scenario biomass gasification, carbon recycling, low water bioforming (turning waste biomass, sewer sludge, manure, or trash into fuel), and some types of algae fuels are likely to have low water demand or even water benefits, while other options such as corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, or even hydrogen are likely to be the "losers" because they have immense water demands.
4. Sewer water is likely to be recycled for municipal uses or at least for recharge into aquifers that are used for drinking.-
That's right the controversial "toilet to tap". It's almost certainly a part of YOUR future if you are not old enough to remember WWII and are not at risk for dying young. But don't worry. Sewage has been getting into human drinking water for millenia. The only difference now, is that it will be required to be very thoroughly cleaned and tested first.
5. Attempts to deal with this problem could include attempts to rework the economic system in such a manner than avoiding recessions/depressions and keeping people employed are no longer dependent on "infinite growth". One of the dangers of these efforts being done in an incomplete way, could be the creation of a long term "welfare class" as has largely been the case in Thatcher/post-Thatcher Britain.
6. Several African countries on the White and Blue Nile (which feed into the main thing) are probably at some time going to demand back the water rights which they lost under British Colonialism, most of which now goes to Egypt and the Middle East-with Israel getting an especially favorable cut.
7. Water's cultural meanings which have declined somewhat to the realm of religious rituals (ei baptism) in the modern world, are very likely to revive and take on modern/post-modern forms. Watershed museums, maritime museums, and tours for local water related infrastructure (damns, treatment plants, hatcheries, groundwater recharge stations) will probably become as basic in terms of public places as local zoos and art museums.
Highly Probable:
1. Governments may have a harder and harder time funding water related projects: There is a strong chance that the science of maintaining water related infrastructure may become more and more high tech, and politicians even the better fiscal times may argue that the technologies are an "alternative" to spending money on the more labor intense projects that involve actually digging up and replacing old pipes. And usually that will work for only so long in the real world. And in fact, the longer the "shovel ready" infrastructure projects" are put off the worse they are likely to get.
2. Citizens around the world may be induced, encouraged, or conscripted to work on water conserving projects: This could include shoring up river banks, planting trees, repairing quarezes in some parts of the world, flood proofing certain by creating artificial ridges and trenches, planting grasses and creating various structures to stop beach erosion and so on. Related projects could include ways to help extract carbon from the atmosphere.
Obviously societies with an existing history of conscription are more likely to choose that as a mechanism. Societies that have a more extensive history of using civil society, tax breaks, or other "carrots" are more likely to use those. In some countries where the military does things such as emergency rescue, fighting forest fires, and such, the military may be called upon to do those things which could have the effect of making it as an institution even more politically powerful than is already the case, and/or of changing it's primary functions. Time will tell.
3. The global number of refugees is likely to increase. In addition to global warming water related shortages and disasters is likely to displaced large number of people on both an international and intranational basis. The political conflicts associated with this could cover a several blogs, books, and papers.
4. Efforts to fight forest fires may be dramatically downsized and perhaps restricted to those which threaten human life.
5. National and International (ei The UN's Millenium Development Goals) to deal with problems such as poverty, could be undermined.
6. Public pools might end up replacing private pools, lawns and golf courses in California and Arizona might have to either be done with extremely drought hardy forms of grass, or become a thing of the past.
7. Heavy political pressures on nations such as Canada and Brazil to "hand over" there large supplies of fresh water to their neighbours. Also within nations there are likely to be issues between the Great Lakes States versus the "thirsty west" in the United States, or differences between the watery south and dry north parts of China-where water is drying up fast and scientists aren't sure why.
Distinct Possibilities-
1. Water for bathing and toilets may end up going through a separate infrastructure from water used for drinking, cooking, and washing dishes-This is likely to be expensive in terms of building infrastructure-if bottled water is not the choice for drinking, cooking, and washing dishes.
2. Rationing-The obvious items for rationing would be domestic water uses, but other possibilities could include energy rationing. Possibly including a system where tap water, hot water, or electricity for uses beyond basic lighting might not be available at all hours of the day. Often energy for water heating was banned for a month or so in the summer in much of Russia during the Soviet era. Or I've been told by some Indians that in some parts of India that watching television was banned at times when electricity was scarce for more basic (usually industrial) needs. It is possible with the smart grid, desired by President Obama, and increasingly technical water metering that similar restrictions would become possible in a modern American and (with similar technology) Western European context. That there could be limits on what times you might be able to take a hot bath, do laundry, or use a clothes dryer.
Other candidates for more "old fashioned" types of rationing could include things such as beef, paper, metal products, fuel (bio or petro), toilet paper, detergents and soaps, or even certain types of clothing.
To any right-wingers who might be reading this blog, I am not referring to a rationing of health care. (Sorry to disappoint.)
3. Public places in much of the developed world might end up looking more worn than most modern Westerners are used to.-Which if you think of it has been the norm throughout human history and certainly in many poorer countries today. However, it might an inevitable result of less water to simply hose down streets and alleyways, and governments more burdened by spending money on water and energy infrastructure. Furthermore, the standards of sanitation that most people in the developed world take for granted could become more precarious.
4. Some parts of the world may experience depopulation and mass emigration. Some at risk places could include areas such as Palestine, part of West China, and regions of East Africa and the Arabian peninsula. And the long term effects of this would be hard to predict in terms of how it would affect global, national, and local politics of various countries, as well as the cultures of both the countries receiving the immigrants and the countries they left behind.
That's all for tonight. In the future I will attempt posts on some of the more unlikely developments that have been raised or discussed regarding global water issues, as well as those that I would consider either impossible or counterproductive. Other possible topics could include some more "out there" but potentially realistic possibilities.
And furthermore, I strongly encourage my readers to write some of the scenarios that they have heard, and I will be happy to provide my take as to whether or not it is a likely scenario. Possibly if it has historical precedents, and whether or not it would likely work. I look forward to hearing some of your ideas and some of the things you have heard, and am eager for more reader participation.
Say Goodnight Readers!
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