Aporkalypse Now

Hello Everyone!

Of course in looking at the news one can't help but notice the H1N1 flu virus, previously known as the "Swine Flu". Certainly this would come as a surprise to those of you who expected the next pandemic to be the "Avian Flu".

So what are we to make of it all? Last week people around the world were asking questions ranging from whether civilization as we know it was about to end, to whether or not they should get rid of their pet pigs. Others felt that since the Avian Flu was a false alarm that all these warnings about pandemic flu are just so much paranoia.

The fact of the matter however, is that pandemic flu is unavoidable. At least as long as the world has plenty of networks for the virus to hop from continent to continent. New strains of flu are bound to show up every so often whether they mutate from a pre-existing human flu, or from a virus in birds, pigs, or sometimes other species. All we can do is be prepared for it.

Does that mean that sooner or later we will have another epidemic like the one in 1918-1919? Yes, probably. However, with modern medicine the death rate is likely to be lower. Even without new antivirals for influenza, it is likely that many of those who died of 1918 pandemic could have been saved with treatments such as antibiotics, modern respiratory treatments, or IV therapies. After all, many of the actual deaths appeared to have resulted from not just the virus but dehydration and/or secondary bacterial pneumonia. One of the unpleasant realities is that antivirals might only go to the sickest people, while the others just have to tough it out-as long as they will probably survive.

Another reality that pandemic flu brings to the forefront is the difficulty of manufacturing and distributing a vaccine even when the procedure for developing one is pretty standard. What many parents reading this blog may already know, but others might find shocking is that we've had a lot of shortages of even very standard vaccines in recent years. In the US there have been recent shortages of the MMR, Tetanus shots, and even human grade rabies shots in some regions. Reasons for these shortages have included production problems, thimersol phaseouts, an increasingly small number of companies that actually make vaccines, and lack of funds for stockpiles. Indeed with a lot of basic infrastructure for manufacturing vaccines declining it will be interesting to see how vaccines for pandemic flu or possible future vaccines for diseases such as HIV, malaria or an improved TB vaccine will be affected.

Currently science is researching ways to make the process of mass vaccine manufacture faster and cheaper, but in the meantime we might have to endure a pandemic flu with a limited stockpile of antivirals, supportive medical care, basic emergency plans and lots of hand santizers.

That's about all I have to add about the recent swine flu.

Be nice to your friend's pet pig. And

Say Goodnight Readers!