A while ago, I posted a blog about things that are likely to happen if/as water becomes a scarcer commodity. Now I'm going to write about certain things that are almost certainly NOT going to happen. Some of these things have been discussed in science fiction novels, others are talked about in environmentalist circles, and many have entered common parlance.
Unlikely scenario #1:Compost toilets will replace the water flush variety:
I don't think this is likely to happen for several reasons. One of which is that compost toilets require a good deal of biomass input such as wood chips or peat moss in order to function properly. Needless to say a lot of such biomass is going to be in demand for things such as cellulosic fuels, biomass gasification/pyrolysis, and similar areas as oil becomes short and as global warming becomes more and more of an issue. Also if they are not attended to properly and break down the results can be, well unpleasant.
Therefore options like full sewage recycling, are probably going to be the dominant solutions even if there is a place for compost style toilets.
Unlikely scenario #2: Personal cleanliness will become a "luxury" and people's bathing habits will "return to the Middle Ages":
First of all, it's a myth that people didn't bathe during the Middle Ages. Secondly, it's unlikely that people in most of the world will have to stop bathing. Generally speaking domestic water usage is quite small compared to agriculture and industry. And bath water can be reused to flush toilets (see above), using a fairly simply plumbing set up that could be added to most homes.
Unlikely scenario #3: Plain water will become the most expensive drink, with milk, soda, and even alcoholic beverages being much cheaper:
If this happens it will certainly be a case of either extreme price manipulation or a perception (accurate or more likely not) that these beverages are safer than water. Because the water drunk by cattle and used to produce their feed, to grow sugar for soda, and to both brew beer and grow the required barley and hops, all take several times as much water to produce as they provide to the drinker.
In reality a genuinely water poor world would likely be a world in which plain water (safe or not) ends up dominating various "beverages" due to the simple economics involved. It could even happen that most milk would be provided in forms such as yoghurt, cheese, butter, or powdered milk, that baby formula and fruit juices would be mostly powdered, that most non-water drinks would end up being sold in dry or concentrated forms such as tea leaves, coffee grounds, bulk sugar, freeze dried, canned or sometimes frozen concentrates, powdered protein drinks and such. If this sounds depressing homemade and/or restaurant made drinks could make a comeback (ie from the citrus tree in the year.) One the whole, fruit would likely become too highly valued to be squeezed into juice unless the only option was to let a surplus go bad. Therefore fruit would mostly be eaten whole or used in recipes where it would be fully savored and "juice" would largely be replaced by things like tea, coffee, cocoa or perhaps other confections that have yet to be invented or popularized.
Alcoholic drinks would likely become dramatically more expensive to the point of limiting their consumption by fiat of economics. Although this possibility would dismay some the upside could be a lowered incidence of alcoholism-which might get some of the benefits of prohibition without the consequences.
Unlikely scenario #4: Everyone will have the most water efficient, washing machines, and other appliances through high technology:
The truth is that currently much of humanity lives without these devices and isn't likely to acquire them soon. Another overlooked truth, is that domestic washing machines and dishwashers, including the much touted "energy star" models" have been rigged to be inefficient for decades. Anyone who has ever worked in a commercial kitchen or laundromat, can see that commercial models-including those which have been in operation since the early 60's-are much more efficient than their domestic cousins. And believe me, the issue is not about scaling down appliances for domestic use. The reasons for this include issues such as planned obsolescence, the desires of the soap and detergent companies (who are often owned by the same companies who make the machines, and the sexist beliefs in the 1950's (when such appliances became popular) that women "needed" to spend a lot of time tending to resource and time consuming appliances in order to be "fullfilled".
So it is true that appliances need to be more efficient. But nobody should assume that they are the key solution in a world filled with inequities, that high technology is always the way to do it, or that ecological pressures will bring these appliances to the table via the "free market".
Unlikely scenario #5: That public drinking fountains will disappear or that restaurants will stop serving pitchers of water with a meal. Instead you will have to buy bottled water with your meal.
If this happens it is a political thing. See "Unlikely scenario #3".
Unlikely scenario #6: People will have to wear stillsuits that recycle the water emitted from their body, so they can drink it again.
Not likely. Although this idea has been around since Frank Herbert's "Dune" was first written in 1964, and was eluded to in the movie "The Man Who Fell To Earth", in real life such devices not only probably wouldn't work, but would cause the wearer to overheat and make breathing and moving as laborious as it would be near the top of Mt. Everest. This is one piece of science fiction that not even nanotechnology will make possible.
Unlikely scenario #7: Water wars will become business as usual.
Of course, the idea of water wars are a major concern. But before jumping the conclusion that peace movements will be seen as a high horse luxury for a water fat world, and that in the future we will all accept the Machiavellian realities without question, one must ask who exactly benefits from this belief.
The first thing to note is that most of the immediate concern about water wars involves situations such as nations that share a river or have experienced disputes over various treaties and water rights. Even with growing technology to import water, doing so will likely remain an expensive venture, and the geopolitical divides will never resemble that of oil. Indeed, while some small and/or poor countries have an abundance of oil, fewer small or nations have a massive abundance of water to be exported, in massive quantities.
So while it is likely that potential wars over water will become a major concern, this is NOT a reason for anti-war movements around the world to either give up or assume that they must invent a stillsuit like the ones worn by the Fremen in "Dune" in order to foster world peace. Nor should citizens in any of the more aggressive countries use fear of thirst as an excuse to not speak out about a certain war, or tolerate affairs such as the international arms trade.
Unlikely scenario #8: Desalinization will solve everything.
It is true that desalinization is an extremely import technology and that work into low energy desalinization is absolutely critical. But before writing off the fresh water that is already being squandered, wasted and mismanaged, it will always be the case that desalinization is going to be more expensive and probably more energy intensive than full sewage recycling or groundwater recharge projects.
Feel free to send me some of the water scenarios you might have heard about and I will try to address them in future posts:
Say Goodnight Readers!
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